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medium Confidence

5169 LILLIAN Court, Livermore CA 94550

livermore-ca-94550
Published Mar 20, 2026, 4:02 PM

5169 LILLIAN Court appears to be a well-covered Livermore single-family rental candidate with strong first-pass rent and valuation support from nearby comps. The key underwriting issue is valuation source selection: the snapshot shows an estimated value of $765,540 based on tax-assessment proxy, while recent sold comps indicate a much higher comp-supported value around $1,273,359 with a range of $1,232,353 to $1,395,250. Rent support is reasonably strong around the provided $3,800-$4,260 range, but at that rent level the asset screens as low-yield relative to the comp-supported value.

Investment Thesis

If the acquisition basis is meaningfully below the recent sold-comp range, this could fit a long-term SFR hold in a strong comp-supported micro-location. If pricing is closer to the current neighborhood sales evidence, the deal looks more like a capital preservation/location play than a cash-yield play, given the 3.8% gross yield and 26.33 price-to-rent ratio shown in the snapshot. Underwriting should rely more heavily on recent sales comps than the assessment-based estimated value, subject to condition confirmation.

Use this as a comp-driven acquisition screen, not an assessment-driven one. Underwrite value primarily from the recent sold comps, with the tax-assessment estimate treated as a weak proxy only. Proceed only if purchase basis leaves room relative to the $1.23M-$1.40M comp-supported range and if updated rent/condition diligence keeps projected rent near the current range. For an income-focused buyer, remain cautious because the provided rent profile implies modest yield at neighborhood pricing.
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5169 LILLIAN Court, Livermore CA 94550
Estimated Value
$1,273,359
Estimated Rent
$4,030
Gross Yield
3.80%
Investment Score
38
Risk Score
62
Rent Range
$3,800 – $4,260
Rental Comps Used
8
Sales Comps Used
8
Comp Value Range
$1,232,353 – $1,395,250

Property Overview

Core facts used in the current underwriting pass.

Beds
4
Baths
2
Sqft
1,977
Year Built
1963

Underwriting Metrics

First-pass assumptions based on the current normalized dataset.

Taxes / Month
$822
Insurance / Month
$531
Maintenance / Month
$322
Cash Flow Estimate
$2,355
Price-to-Rent Ratio
26.33
Property Type
Single Family

Rent Evidence

How well the current rent view appears supported by estimates and available comps.

Rent estimate includes a range from $3,800 to $4,260.
8 rental comparable(s) were included in the current snapshot.
Comparable rental coverage appears relatively strong for a first-pass view.
Top rent comps include 737 Vivian Dr at $4,200 (1,803 sf, 0.87 mi, 159 days old), 687 Geraldine St at $4,500 (1,907 sf, 0.61 mi, 28 days old), and 4120 Pomona Way at $4,200 (1,702 sf, 0.80 mi, 72 days old).
A very nearby rent comp at 1377 Lillian St is listed at $3,900 (2,102 sf, 0.07 mi, 49 days old), which helps support the low-to-mid part of the rent range.
Rent support is directionally good, but all provided rent comps are inactive and some are somewhat dated, so final market rent still needs broker/PM validation.

Key Assumptions

Estimated inputs or proxy values used in the current underwriting pass.

Estimated value uses latest tax assessment value as a proxy.
Insurance estimated at 0.5% of value annually.
HOA assumed to be $0 until verified.
Maintenance estimated at 8% of monthly rent.

Top Rent Comps

Closest supporting rental comparables from the current snapshot.

737 Vivian Dr, Livermore, CA 94550
4 bd • 2 ba • 1,803 sqft
$4,200
0.9 mi • 159d old
687 Geraldine St, Livermore, CA 94550
4 bd • 2.5 ba • 1,907 sqft
$4,500
0.6 mi • 28d old
4120 Pomona Way, Livermore, CA 94550
4 bd • 2 ba • 1,702 sqft
$4,200
0.8 mi • 72d old

Top Sold Comps

Recent nearby sold comparables supporting the current value view.

5181 DIANE CT, LIVERMORE, CA 94550
4 bd • 2 ba • 1,994 sqft • Built 1963
$1,375,000
$690/sqft • 0.1 mi • Apr 2, 2025
Similarity 96.6
1293 LILLIAN ST, LIVERMORE, CA 94550
4 bd • 2 ba • 2,051 sqft • Built 1964
$1,250,000
$609/sqft • 0.1 mi • Apr 13, 2023
Similarity 90.78
1178 MEGAN RD, LIVERMORE, CA 94550
4 bd • 3 ba • 2,055 sqft • Built 1994
$1,550,000
$754/sqft • 0.1 mi • Mar 13, 2025
Similarity 88.38
1377 LILLIAN ST, LIVERMORE, CA 94550
4 bd • 3 ba • 2,102 sqft • Built 1965
$1,340,000
$637/sqft • 0.1 mi • Nov 20, 2025
Similarity 87.68

Strengths

Positive signals surfaced in the first-pass analysis.

8 rental comps and 8 sold comps were provided, which is strong coverage for a first-pass screen.
Top sales comps are very close geographically and highly similar in size/bed-bath profile, including 5181 Diane Ct (0.124 mi, 1,994 sf, sold $1,375,000 on 2025-04-02) and 1293 Lillian St (0.095 mi, 2,051 sf, sold $1,250,000 on 2023-04-13).
Comp-supported value range of $1,232,353 to $1,395,250 provides a defined valuation band rather than relying only on proxy fields.
Rent estimate range of $3,800 to $4,260 is supported by multiple nearby 4-bed rentals.
Top rent comps are reasonably close in size and location, including 687 Geraldine St at $4,500 (1,907 sf, 0.61 mi, 28 days old) and 4120 Pomona Way at $4,200 (1,702 sf, 0.80 mi, 72 days old).
Historical sale evidence exists at $582,500 on 2021-05-24, which is recent enough to be directionally supportive of a large step-up in value over time, though recent sales comps are more relevant.
Lot size of 6,007 sf is present, which is typical supporting property context for SFR analysis.
Building quality is reported as AVERAGE, which does not raise or enhance value by itself but suggests no premium quality assumption should be embedded.

Risks

Known concerns, weak spots, or factors to verify.

The estimated value of $765,540 is based on latest tax assessment proxy and is far below the comp-supported value of $1,273,359; this creates valuation-source conflict and limits confidence if acquisition pricing references the proxy value.
Rent comps are all marked inactive, so rent support is useful but not as strong as live leased comps or currently marketed comps.
Several rent comps are older, including one at 159 days and another at 126 days, which introduces some staleness into the rental read.
Gross yield of 3.8% and price-to-rent ratio of 26.33 suggest thin income return if purchase price is near the comp-supported sales range.
Insurance, maintenance, and HOA assumptions are model-driven rather than verified property-specific figures.
No condition, renovation level, or deferred maintenance detail is provided, which is material for a 1963-built house and could move both rent and value meaningfully.
No diligence detail is provided on occupancy, lease status, permits, title issues, or major systems.

Missing Information

Important gaps that reduce confidence in the current report.

No property condition or renovation detail is provided.
No active lease or occupancy information is provided.
No seller asking price or target acquisition basis is provided.
No financing terms are provided.
No capex or repair estimates are provided.
No property tax basis detail is provided beyond monthly taxes.
No HOA verification is provided despite the assumption of $0.

Next Steps

Suggested diligence actions before making a decision.

Anchor valuation to the recent sold-comp range, not the $765,540 proxy estimate.
Get broker or PM rent opinion with active/recently leased comps to confirm $3,800-$4,260 market rent.
Confirm actual tax, insurance, and HOA costs.
Inspect for deferred maintenance and verify any updates or additions.
Re-underwrite returns once true acquisition price and condition-adjusted capex are known.

Facts Used

Structured facts the report relied on most heavily.

Estimated value is available at 765540.
Comp-supported value is available at 1273359.
Comp-supported value range is available from 1232353 to 1395250.
Sold comparables are available with 8 comp(s).
Estimated rent is available at 4030.
Estimated rent range is available from 3800 to 4260.
Rental comparables are available with 8 comp(s).
Historical sale price is available at 582500.
Historical sale date is available at 2021-05-24.
Building quality is reported as AVERAGE.
Lot size is available at 6007 square feet.
Taxes per month are present at 821.67.

Diligence Items

Items to verify before relying on this analysis for a decision.

Verify current property taxes and whether $821.67/month reflects actual tax burden or a modeled figure tied to value assumptions.
Verify HOA is truly $0.
Obtain current insurance quote rather than relying on the 0.5% annual estimate.
Confirm interior condition, level of renovation, and deferred maintenance for a 1963-built home.
Validate achievable market rent with local property management leasing comps, ideally active or recently leased comps.
Confirm lot configuration, floor plan utility, and any additions or conversions relative to the stated 1,977 sf.
Review title, permits, and seller disclosures.
Confirm whether property will be delivered vacant or occupied.

Upside Opportunities

Potential areas where this property may outperform the base first-pass view.

If acquisition basis is materially below the $1.23M-$1.40M comp-supported range, there may be valuation spread to neighborhood sales evidence.
If condition is competitive with the stronger nearby rentals, rent could land toward the upper end of the provided $3,800-$4,260 range.
Very close neighborhood sales suggest the micro-location is liquid enough for clearer price discovery than many suburban SFR screens.

Deal Breakers

Conditions that could quickly eliminate this property from consideration.

Seller pricing anchored near neither the assessment proxy nor supported comp range and unsupported by condition or unique features.
Verified market rent comes in materially below the provided $3,800 low-end estimate.
Material deferred maintenance, unpermitted work, or major system issues inconsistent with underwriting on a 1963-built home.
Actual taxes, insurance, or HOA obligations materially exceed the modeled figures.